The college all-star games and the NFL Scouting Combine are fading in the rearview mirror and Pro Days are in full swing. This is an excellent time for a look at the biggest stories of the 2010 NFL Draft.
The first pick: There is still plenty of debate as to who will go #1. Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh is widely considered to be the top prospect in this year's draft and was the early favorite amongst pundits. The St. Louis Rams could easily grab Suh and probably mollify their fan base and avoid heavy scrutiny from the chattering masses. The biggest need for the Rams still appears to be quarterback though, and we've contended from the beginning that this is the direction they will go. The buzz currently has Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford (shoulder) as the Rams top target. He will throw for NFL scouts on Monday. Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen (toe) will throw for scouts on April 9. How these two perform will go a long way in determining who goes #1.
The Other Quaterbacks: Bradford and Clausen are the consensus first two quarterback picks in the 2010 NFL Draft. But what about the rest? Texas' Colt McCoy, Florida's Tim Tebow and Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour are all in the mix be the third guy taken. LeFevour did him self no favors by electing not to throw at the NFL Scouting Combine and by some accounts had an average Pro Day throwing the ball. The throwing mechanics of Tebow and McCoy have been well publicized, leading to more questions than answers. Don't be surprised if a guy like Oklahoma State's Zac Robinson or West Virginia's Jarrett Brown become one of the top five quarterbacks taken, it's that wide open.
Defensive Tackles: Ndamukong Suh and Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy are certain top-ten picks at this point, and they could end up being the first two players taken in the draft. With the amount of attention that they've received, they'll make a very safe pick for the cautious general manager who is willing to tie up top-five money in a defensive tackle. A lot depends on how the quarterbacks look leading up to the draft, and everything hinges on the Rams' first choice. If St. Louis opts for Bradford (or Clausen), the Detroit Lions will likely grab Suh or McCoy. In this case we could see some trade action for teams looking to move up to the third spot to take the odd DT out. Otherwise, we're looking for McCoy to fall to at least the fifth spot where he'd fit a need for the Kansas City Chiefs. So Suh is probably safe as a top-three pick, but McCoy could slide a bit if the QBs are highly valued.
Offensive Tackles: This could be a big year for offensive tackles. We have five going in the first round, including three in the top six. The number of OTs taken in the first round for the last ten years: 3-6-3-1-2-2-3-4-3-3. Of the six taken in 2008 none was drafted higher than 12th. So we're looking at some premium players that happen to be coming along at the right time (at least as far as their bank accounts are concerned). The Washington Redskins could opt to go quarterback instead of our projected pick, Bryan Bulaga. Seattle Seahawks could very easily use one of their first round picks on another position of need as well.
OLB/Rush End: A couple of the biggest draft risers are defensive ends or soon-to-be rush linebackers. Michigan's Brandon Graham and South Florida's Jason Pierre-Paul headline this list. Graham has been a true difference-maker as a college defensive end, constantly disrupting plays in the backfield. JPP is more of a measurables guy; he's only played one year at the top level of collegiate football. Some draft pundits are projecting Pierre-Paul into the top ten this year, but that kind of pick can lead to a quick bus ticket out of town for GMs that don't have time to wait for his game to mature. Graham is the better play, especially in as a OLB in a 3-4 system. We'll take the proven production over the measurables.
Running Backs: We think there are four running backs with first round potential this year. Jahvid Best and C.J. Spiller are speed guys that should contribute to the return game. Jonathan Dwyer is a more prototypical NFL running back with the power that he brings. And Ryan Mathews continues to show that he is likely the most complete back in the draft this offseason. Where we differ from most pundits is that we think Jahvid Best will end up being the first running back selected. Best has the edge in instinct and toughness over Spiller, and is a bigger home run potential than Dwyer. He's probably not a 20-carry per game guy, but he'll give one team a big weapon on the offensive side of the ball.
Wide Receiver: Is there a legitimate first-round wide receiver after Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant? We think there are a couple, but they probably aren't the guys that you're hearing about. We have Bryant going to the Broncos with the 11th pick. Notre Dame's Golden Tate is a guy that has produced in college, even after his fellow WR Michael Floyd went down with an injury in the fourth game last year. Tate silenced the doubters with a 4.42 forty-time at the combine, we're confident he'll land in the first round. If not, someone will get a bargain in the second. Our sleeper pick in Missouri's Danario Alexander slips due yet another injury, but is still one that we think will go higher than most pundits thinks. The Danario doubters may question his quickness off the line, but we see a guy that is comparable to a Herman Moore and someone who was making more noise than Jeremy Maclin at Mizzou before untimely injuries.
Conerbacks: No position has seen more shuffling of the ranks than at corner. This is seems to be a deep draft for corners with eight potential first round picks led by Florida's Joe Haden. Boise State's Kyle Wilson has seen his stock continue to rise this offseason and we liked what we saw out of Amari Spievey from Iowa at the NFL Scouting Combine. And don't forget about Florida State's Patrick Robinson, Oklahoma's Dominique Franks, Oklahoma State's Perrish Cox, Virginia's Chris Cook and Alabama Kareem Jackson. Besides Jackson, this group has not received as much buzz of late, but all have first round potential.