Over the past 4 or 5 months we've been trying to predict what will happen on April 28th with our mock drafts. And we are not alone; countless other websites, experts and users of this site have attempted to do the same.
But as we all know the draft rarely follows the script. There will be trades, surprise picks and players that will fall.
Below are six bold predictions for the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft. Feel free to critique, praise, ridicule or even post your own predictions -- if you dare -- in the comments below.
Carolina WILL NOT take Cam Newton with the #1 pick
Newton is the odds-on favorite to be drafted #1 in the 2011 NFL Draft. But I still don't see it happening. Let's look at this realistically. Newton has thrown 282 passes at the FBS level. Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker all have over 900 pass attempts. Newton simply doesn't have a large enough body of work to accurately evaluate. His accuracy has come under scrutiny and he played in offense based on deception that often found receivers wide open. That rarely happens in the NFL. Yes he has great size, strong arm, athletic ability and is a proven winner. But can he take a three or five step drop, read a defense and deliver the ball accurately? I have no idea, and neither do NFL scouts. Does this sound like a #1 overall pick?
Julio Jones WILL BE drafted before A.J. Green
Green has been the top pick at receiver even before he declared for the draft, including by us. And I'll admit, this is looking less and less likely to happen. But I get the feeling that many experts have locked into Green and failed to notice just how good Jones is. He'll be a better pro than a college player simply because his talents will be utilized more. Whoever gets him will have themselves a steal.
Ryan Mallett WILL BE a top 15 pick
There has been much talk about Mallett's off-the-field indiscretions and leadership abilities. He is projected by many to be a late first round or second round pick. But there is simply no quarterback that possess the arm that Mallett does and the last time I checked, this was the most important (yes there are others) attribute for a quarterback. There are too many teams in the front half the draft that need a quarterback for him to slip. Regarding his ability to lead, he led Arkansas to a BCS bowl last season.
Detroit WILL NOT take an OT with the 13th pick
Notice how I gave myself an out here? The Lions taking an OT with the 13th pick is one of the top consensus picks among mock drafters. After giving up the sack that shelved QB Matt Stafford in week one, LT Jeff Backus was solid. In fact the entire offensive line was solid, only allowing 27 sacks in 2010, seventh best in the NFL. Stats can often be deceiving and the offensive line could certainly use some upgrades that will need to be addressed at some point in the draft, but there are more pressing needs at corner and linebacker.
The problem is the Lions are in an awkward position with the 13th pick as there may not be a player at either position worth a pick that high. Look for the Lions to try to move up to grab Prince Amukamara or even Patrick Peterson if they slip, or down to get more picks. If they do take an OT in the first round it will be after they've made a move.
Drake Nevis WILL BE drafted in the first round
Every draft has a surprise or two in the first round. Nevis is my pick to surprise in 2011. Any other year and Nevis is being talked about as a legit first rounder. The 2011 Draft is loaded with defensive lineman and Nevis has been lost in the shuffle. Nevis anchored one of the best defenses in the country last year (12th in total defense), registering 56 tackles and six sacks.
Tyron Smith WILL NOT be the first OT taken
Much like the Julio Jones prediction, I'm feeling less and less confident about this one as the days go by. But I don't see a clear #1 OT in this year's draft. As most are predicting, there is going to be a mad rush on OTs in the middle of the first round, and I could see any one of five prospects going first.
Other Notes: There is no greater consensus pick than Mark Ingram going to Miami. What a shock that would be if it didn't happen...I originally had planned to have 'the fall of Da'Quan Bowers' before his workout, but that is hardly a bold prediction now...Up until a few weeks ago I was still stubbornly hanging on to the belief Nick Fairley would be drafted higher than Marcel Dareus, but I've since conceded on this one.